The mood of the consumers will brighten in November. Both economic and income expectations are growing noticeably. The propensity to buy despite its small losses continues to maintain its very high level. For example, GfK forecasts a value of 9.7 points for December, 0.1 more than in November (9.6 points). These are the results of the GfK consumer climate study for November 2019.
Although the consumer climate is also somewhat weaker than in the corresponding period of the previous year due to the well-known risk factors such as global economic weakness, trade conflicts and Brexit chaos, the level can still be described as very satisfactory and the trend in consumption propensity stable.
"German consumers made a significant contribution to preventing a recession in Germany in the third quarter due to their extremely good consumer mood. Private consumption thus fully lives up to its role as an important pillar of the economy, "explains Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert. "Consumers are thus optimistic about the upcoming holiday season, which is one of the busiest times of the year for a number of retail industries, such as consumer electronics and toys. Here it is decided how the year as a whole should be judged. And that's something the trade can look forward to with a good deal of optimism. "
·The economic outlook brightens noticeably
Consumer sentiment is improving noticeably in November. Thus, the downward trend - at least for now - stopped. The indicator gains 15.5 points and climbs to 1.7 points. This puts it slightly above its long-term average of zero points. A stronger increase was last measured on the short-term indicator more than nine years ago, in June 2010. At that time, he even rose during the recovery phase after the biggest recession in post-war history by just under 33 counters.
Contrary to expectations, the German economy grew by 0.1 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous period, according to the first provisional reports from the Federal Statistical Office. Many experts had predicted a slight contraction, which would have meant slipping Germany into a "technical" recession, as this would have been the second consecutive decline.
·The propensity to buy remains at a very high level
Despite the weakening economy and the risk factors already mentioned above, German consumers are not spoiled by their consumer sentiment. The propensity to buy remains at a very high level, even though the indicator has suffered small losses in November. He loses 1.7 points and now has 50 points.
Consumption propensity will continue to receive tailwind from the monetary policy of the European Central Bank ( ECB ). As a result of the renewed tightening of the low-interest-rate policy, private individuals are now increasingly threatened with penalties for investing in banks and savings banks. This will probably cause one or the other savers, rather more money in purchases or expenditures than to put it on the high edge.
From: PBS REPORT
